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NFL Betting Trends: Stats, Real Trends & Falsies… Use Them!

With the forthcoming 2022 NFL Regular Season on September 8, we at Pelican PayPerHead like to stay on top and help bookies and sportsbooks stay on top as well. And the best way to succeed using pay per head services is to know the NFL betting trends used by your customers to place winning wagers.

But there are major differences within the NFL wagering trends –as any successful handicappers may tell you– and it’s important to be in the loop to get the most out of your pay-per-head services. Even if wagering based on trends doesn’t always work out every week. Let’s see a little of the process.

Teams Tend To Deal Out Falsies

Every week, the teams throw in some false trends in the mix, and every week there is always a wagerer using NFL trends who might think this is the trend that won’t cave in. But here’s the catch: trends do break; they always do. Regardless, even though trend-based wagering is not successful every week, and a customer may find that their margin for winning wagers on NFL games is on the slippery slope, it is nonetheless important for pay-per-head providers to know the trends. Because, even if the trends do break almost inevitably, there are players who are skilled and will use some of them to make money, so sportsbooks had better be prepared in the best possible way to ensure their own profits during the 2022 NFL Season. 

When Does A Stat Become A Trend?

Two different things here: stats and trends. But, stats lead up to trends, so the difference can be confusing. Let’s remember the stat where Tom Brady (when he was with the New England Patriots) apparently did great in cold weather. Since this stat implied that Tom playing in cold weather meant a win for the Patriots, it turned into a trend as it became apparent that Tom Brady did manage a great many dropbacks in several outdoor games when the weather was freezing or below freezing, in the years between 2001 and 2013. Thus, it turned into a trend from the stat. This made trend players go for the win every time Tom played in freezing weather.

But (and there’s a great big But here), these trends tend to be what the majority thinks or wants them to be. This was put in evidence when Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay and led the Buccaneers to their Super Bowl victory, or the countless times the Patriots (with Tom) won in warm weathered venues, like the Super Bowl which is almost never carried out in freezing weather. This was left out by the stat/trend. This relationship between a stat and a trend is what you need to keep in sight before the rug is pulled from under the bookie’s feet.

Most Overused Trend In Wagering: The Home Field NFL Betting Trend

The home field NFL trend is very used in the world of sports wagering. In fact, it is so used, it’s overused. So much that oddsmaking specialists, who are skilled in creating a line building up action on both sides, assign -3 to the home team without even thinking about it.

A brief example of this can be seen in this fictional setup: Let’s say the Patriots are on the road versus the Jets. This particular game occurred last year, and the Jets are a lousy team. The Patriots are are -9 ½ road favorites.

The NFL odds tell us Patriots would be -12 ½ if the game happened at their home stadium. But, here’s the catch: odds don’t generate trends. The stat is that Patriots scored 30 points in the most recent 8 road games versus the Jets, while the Jets scored 14 in those same games. The former were not favored by more than 16 points in none of those road games; with a difference between 30 and 14, the trend thus becomes: Jets 0-8 ATS in their previous 8 games at home versus the Patriots. Remember: these stats and the trend generated from the stats are fictional, but they’re shown to give you an idea of how the price-per-head providers perceive and get a whiff of how NFL trend bettors think, plus how they generate home field stats. 

What’s Up With The Expert Surface Stats & NFL Betting Trends

One NFL expert surface stat trend was extremely overplayed in the last decade, namely: with Sean Payton coaching and Drew Brees quarterbacking the Saints indoors, it would bring victory and they would cover spreads. But the Saints didn’t actually cover more spreads than any other winning team; since Vegas oddsmakers are, in fact, really skilled at adjusting spread lines, and all the bookie wagering lines come from oddsmakers from Las Vegas, we see that there’s no lines-maker that generates an NFL spread that is truly and considerably different from the lines that are set in Vegas.

Should Bookies And Sportsbook Worry About NFL Trend Wagering?

While it’s a fact that trend wagering can dish out some wins, no trend is watertight. Besides, it’s virtually impossible to find out which trends are the important ones, and there’s no NFL team that will only show positive trends for their matches. So trend wagering is not something that should keep you up at night.

Now then, there is one factor that may pose a risk for your sportsbook, and that is a player that becomes a team expert, a handicapper that becomes proficient in wagering for/against a particular team, and this makes them win much more than the regular trend-wagering players.

This team expert chooses a team –familiar to them or not– and makes money off wagering on his chosen team to cover/lose against the spread. They also wager over/under totals, and on futures that have to do with their chosen team; since their modus operandi consists of backing their selected team to cover or not against the spread, this allows them to win more.  

How To Limit Your Risk From NFL Team Expert Wagers

You can limit risk from NFL team expert wagers, and the first thing up is to find these NFL team experts before they do too much damage.

Basics are:

  1. Check Betting Program Reports to find these NFL team experts.
  2. Set your betting limits to make sure you don’t end up making massive payouts.
  3. Limit parlays to three or four teams, tops.
  4. Regarding NFL total wagering, do trust the lines. Over-under lines are generally perfect as they are, so you don’t really need to adjust any betting line, unless you are totally in the know. Still, it’s generally safe to just leave over-under NFL total lines alone.

The following do not especially limit exposure from experts, just so you know:

  1. Using your layoff account
  2. Setting NFL Parlay limits
  3. Limiting the action on futures for NFL
  4. Trusting the over-under total odds for NFL

Now, get down to business and choose a pay-per-head partner to pick up your slack and stand by you with these NFL Betting Trends! Rest assured, Pelican PayPerHead is the provider where your back is covered and with which your life is made easier. Choose wisely.

Up and at’em!

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